Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Next week for Great Lakes

Heavy Lake Effect Snow Possible Next week for Great Lakes

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hello everybody welcome back to another
video with my back-to-back upload today in today’s video we’re actually gonna be
talking about the potential for heavy lake effect snow for some areas of Lake
Michigan Lake Ontario Lake Erie some of those could get some pretty heavy snow
with this cold air loft that is expected to move in so make sure you get your
shovels ready before we do get started with the video though be sure to check
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out a lot so we are now gonna look at the year of
European model here first we’re gonna kind of go from the best to the least
accurate so the European model over the next 10 days again this is going to
change but this is a trend that we really look for very closely notice a
lot of snow over the Great Lakes here alright especially along literally over
the waters of Lake Erie Lake Michigan alright Lake Erie’s over here here’s
Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario I believe is over here there’s so many great lakes
but you get the idea this is where the heaviest snow is gonna be possibly
within the next 10 days probably 8 to 12 inches some of the higher-end models
when we look start looking at those it’ll probably be showing probably a
couple of feet in some localized areas definitely a lot of snow we really got
to watch this and then way off here on the European model there’s a lot of snow
down the road we’re looking at probably about 7 to 10 days but there’s a snow
storm that could bring winter weather advisory type conditions over across the
Northeast maybe a winter storm warning but right now it’s becoming less likely
but right now it’s going to be the lake-effect snow what we are really
gonna have to pay pretty close attention on so now the GFS is pretty close to the
European model actually quite surprisingly showing a lot of snow in
these areas once again lots of snow probably a foot or more here’s like Erie
with probably a foot of snow again wherever the winds are coming from that
will be where the heaviest snow sets up usually kind of downwind along the coast
there of Lake Erie seen about 12 inches of snow again this is because that cold
air that I’m about to show you will be moving over the Great Lakes so now the
Canadian model a model that we really don’t rely on this is actually really
aggressive it does a pretty good job though however with the GFS and the
European model putting a lot of snow in these areas like we were just mentioning
but it also puts a lot more snow over here which again I highly doubt I don’t
think that’s gonna happen 35 inches in 10 days is probably not very accurate
right now so I don’t think there will be 35 inches but there will be some sort of
snowfall that is expected but across the Great Lakes so it’s pretty consistent
with all the global durman testing models that we really rely on quite well
all right so if you’re in these areas get the shovels out get the snow shovels
the snow plows you’re probably gonna need them alright so the setup for this
recipe of lake effect snow is going to be the colder air alright the first
round of cold air brings a little bit of lake effect snow off of Lake Michigan
covering the northern tier of Michigan State they’re not the north the other
section but the glove section of Michigan it’ll be a little bit of snow
covering for portions of Northeastern Ohio for portions of Pennsylvania and
also Buffalo New York but it’s gonna be after this one another shot of cold air
there’s a little bit of warmer air aloft that’s going to cancel
the lake-effect snow and then this cold air dips down see these thicknesses in
the atmosphere some technical terms from meteorology chol standpoint all right
this is the 540 line all right where the atmosphere above the surface is freezing
okay we’re seen cold air aloft and cold air mixing down so the deeper these
thicknesses the isotherms or thicknesses in the atmosphere like way up here we’re
looking at a 498 this is some very cold air okay aloft and this is gonna sag
south over time and this is gonna help bring in that threat for lake effect
snow you’ll see that here for Monday and Tuesday look at that all this lake this
again coming off some of the lakes even here some lake effect snow also up here
in Canada also more lake effect snow here and then a lot of snow here coming
down at a good clip here on the GFS model a GFS small is doing a pretty good
job at it I don’t have access to the European precipitation type on weather
belt calm that’s why I’m using tropical tidbits from will Levi Callan such an
awesome guy that puts this together this high-pressure here 1043 millibars so we
got a really strong high pressure system at the surface and that is some dense
cold air like look at these numbers folks 504 498 on the isotherm this is
deeply frozen air aloft and that again the lake waters are warm okay we’ll just
remember that the lake waters are really warm then the surrounding air and what
happens is you get humidity that gets increased it’s kind of like steam coming
off of your boiled water almost only that the atmosphere here is probably
like minus 20 minus 30 degrees aloft and so that cold air is sinking and mixing
and destabilizing the warm air at the surface over the lakes and that’s why
get lake-effect snow all right and some of this again could be quite heavy again
we’re seeing dark blue medium blue colors probably some snow rates there of
about an inch maybe three inches an hour as this cold air continues again you can
see it here so while areas here could have mostly sunny skies here where the
snow is gonna fall will be a very different story it’s kind of a weather
system of its own all right and so this cold air is gonna
slowly kind of move east and then the lake effect snow should back off a
little bit over time here but it’s gonna be a while we’re looking at nearly ten
days here before that backs off and then another weather system here may try to
reinforce some cooler air but again not as cold as what we’re gonna be seen for
early next week that will trigger that lake effect snow notice by the isotherms
here so get ready folks it’s gonna get cold
all right aloft okay so the low-level temperature anomaly we want to look at
this again this is a recipe for that lake effect snow and you can see here
over the Great Lakes it’s gonna be definitely colder than normal
obviously and that’s gonna again corn and spawned to there this whole
destabilization over the Great Lakes okay a lot of turbulence lot of
juiciness in the atmosphere for some very heavy snow and then temperatures do
not look to be as cold later on in timing again that’s why the lake effect
snow should back off later with time all right so now we’re we’re gonna look at
the actual air temperature at about 6,000 feet 5,000 something like that and
you can see this cold air by Monday by Sunday night into Monday it moves
further south look at these temperatures here these temperatures are about pretty
much -20 we’re looking at minus 25 degrees aloft here so we’re looking at
some very cold air temperatures okay and again that’s why the lake effect snow
will be a CERN at least through Thursday until
this cold air moves out still freezing but obviously not a huge contrast with
temperatures from Lake waters all the way up to four to five thousand feet
high all right and then that continues and then warmer air moves in before more
colder air moves in but still a far cry from what we will be seen again of what
we’re expecting there so just remember when you get cold air loft warm lake
waters especially in the I think that are in the upper 50s to low 60s that’s
gonna hurt okay that’s gonna really increase the chances for very heavy lake
effect snow given the moisture content in the air so keep that in mind while oh
it’s sunny okay we’re not gonna see much snow please bring the shovels out just
in case and the plows because I’m sure you’re gonna need them after dealing
with probably a couple of feet of snow in localized areas wouldn’t surprise me
if there’s four feet of snow in some of the northern tier of the Michigan State
there all right so keep that in mind all right everybody be safe out there
don’t drive crazy make sure you have food water and a
survival kit just in case you do get trapped out there again this is very new
to some people in this early in November it’s only the fifth of November we’re
talking November eleventh and the twelfth here for the chances for pretty
heavy snow maybe winter storm warnings maybe blizzard warnings could be issued
wouldn’t surprise me with how cold this air versus the lake waters could be
alright that’s gonna do with this video make sure you do check out my discord
there is limited slots I’m gonna probably up it to five with this video
but we are gonna be making sure you are well trusted check out my Twitter
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really really awesome have a good night
everybody see you in the next one

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