Rob’s weather forecast 5-22-19 10pm

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TC weather lab here’s Rob’s forecast welcome back well the heat is going to be on over the next several days through the weekend into next week but the big story the possibility of the floodgates being opened at the Morganza spillway more on that in just a few seconds so let’s get into it because we have a lot to talk about this evening big heavy-duty rains severe weather and the threat of flooding across the nation’s midsection where there has been flooding in Oklahoma that will eventually feed into the Red River more flooding as we get into Kansas and then across Missouri and of course that water floods into or dumps into the Mississippi River as well this evening the threat of tornadoes and we’ve had tornado warnings going for most of the night from near the Tulsa area on northeastward there was a tornado that went by portions of southwestern Missouri eight years after the big tornado outbreak here of eight years ago and you can see more tornado warning so severe weather on top of that the threat of heavy rainfall on that heavy rainfall threat still back to the west as well as there’s going to be additional rain and storms developing later on tonight through tomorrow so flood watches for our friends to the north and then to the south we’ve been watching this for quite a while we’ve been feeding these breezy south winds up into the storms we’ve had generally fare to partly cloudy skies and we’re going to see more Sun next couple of days here are all the flood watches and warnings going you can see all the rivers in flood coming down the Mississippi and those water levels have been high so high that the spillway at Bonnie Kerry reopened this for a second time this year that has never happened before we have some floating along the Red River the rivers in Texas and then along the Red River in Louisiana the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya and that’s what we’re most concerned with so here’s a little bit of a primer on the local rivers you have the Mississippi River coming down here we have the Atchafalaya that kind of splits off from the Mississippi that is also fed by the Red River right here and this structure right here up just north of the Sims port areas what’s called the old river control structure that essentially sends some of the Mississippi and the red 70% of that down the Mississippi but about 30% goes into the Atchafalaya now that distribution will change if the Corps of Engineers decides to open up the floodgates the spillway at the Morganza location which is right here and this is a picture of it an aerial picture just after I think the spillway was closed you can see water was kind of spilling into this area already south of this region is farmland and what the Corps is concerned with that the water levels may over atop the spillway and this is what it looked like I had to pull a picture back from 2011 before the spillway the Morganza structure was opened and here’s the Mississippi but all of the oxbow lakes here were filling up with water the water was pressing here and in order to control it we may have to see these gates open what happened after those spillway gates opened well this farmland was inundated with flood water it worked its way southward into the northern portions of the Atchafalaya swamp but back in 2011 we saw that most of this area absorbed the water and it went right into the ground and we didn’t have the flooding and the camps and homes even though they were threatened the water levels didn’t come up so the Corps of engineer modeling left a lot to be desired last time when we were forecasting water levels coming up in the Atchafalaya Basin but the waters gonna come up in the Atchafalaya and the chapel I River will likely get higher if those floodgates are certainly opened up so we’ll have to watch that very very closely meanwhile weather-wise clouds coming in tonight then for tomorrow we’ll see more sunshine in the afternoon than what we saw today doubt the weather we’re gonna see much if any shower activity clouds coming back in Tamar and I may be getting a little bit cooler but upper 80s to lower 90s through Friday and much the same as we head into the weekend rain chances scant to none over the next week so temperatures tomorrow morning mid to upper 70s it’s certainly going to be humid then getting into the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow may be a little bit better and that’s the saving grace even though we’re going to be getting hotter during the day you may be good a little bit cooler at night but once again it’s that time of year we’re talking about the heat index as well latest heat index forecast gets us up to about 97 on the i-10 corridor tomorrow afternoon and those heat indices may be pushing close to 100 as we head into the weekend so a nice evening overall warm and humid a little bit of a breeze though helping out there 76 the low tomorrow 90 to 91 the high with those heat indices pushing 98 tomorrow afternoon plenty of clouds in the morning but I think plenty of Sun in the afternoon southeast winds breezy but not as breezy as they have been over the last couple of days lower 90s as we go into the big Memorial Day weekend rain chances 10% or less through the next week could improve toward the end of next week but we will have to wait and see on that meanwhile we have this hot dry pattern but the water levels coming up on the rivers and we will have to watch that very closely because the whole idea of that spillway is to keep the Mississippi from spilling out somewhere else we don’t want it to and the same goes for the Atchafalaya as well all right we’ll stay on it thanks Rob

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