Rob’s weather forecast 6-6-19 6pm

Rob’s weather forecast 6-6-19 6pm

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TC weather lab here’s Rob’s forecast welcome back well unfortunately mother nature delivering on the promise of flooding rains last night and early this morning fortunately a bit of a break but we do have more storms in the forecast but we’re not forecasting more flooding rains that’s the good news storms will be moving along but we can’t rule out a couple of inches of rain in spots through tomorrow into tomorrow evening more on that in just a bit first off though let’s take a look at that Vermillion River awfully high in fact it cracked the top 10 highest crest on record over at Surry Street the water moving quite quickly and it is quite high and we were fortunate it was down to 6.9 feet after being elevated for a couple of weeks with the rains going back a few weeks ago it got down to 6.9 feet and then rose well over 14 feet so it came up nearly 8 feet from where it was yesterday morning through this morning so let’s take a look at the big picture we had this big convective complex that tropical complex that was drawn northward by this upper-level low here so all that deep tropical moisture we were saying going back to the weekend weather with this thing would develop or not we’re gonna have the threat of very heavy rainfall and certainly that came to fruition and when you involve these upper lows with the tropical moisture it’s sometimes it’s quite explosive and we had not only the very heavy rainfall but some severe weather as well and here’s the radar satellite composite over the last 24 hours a break this afternoon more notice more activity back to the west and we had a severe cell that rolled through western portions of Acadiana then the trainings rain and storms and then we had rainfall rates two to three inches per hour for several hours so the rains really totaled up but the doppler underestimated it and i talked more about this on social media and on ket c-calm maybe not the right algorithm or the right coefficients but all the numbers that the Doppler estimated here are only about 60 or 70 percent of what actually fell most areas anywhere between 4 and 12 inches of rain across most of Acadiana and you got into Cameron parish we had a rain right here reporting 12 point 8 inches so and at my house we had roughly seven and a half inches but it only showed on this map I don’t show it here four point six inches so there was a lot more rain than what the Doppler indicated many spots catching a foot of rain in Lafayette Parish and then back to the west as well and then we had the severe weather reports these are mostly flooding reports but we did have wind damage reports with that cell not many wind damage reports back to the west where we thought we had a tornado on the ground coming from Cameron up through Jeff Davis and Acadia Parish but it was mostly elevated but also in a very rural area so we didn’t get any confirmation of damaging winds and then certainly there are a couple of tornadoes over toward Baton Rouge southward once the daytime heating kicked in with those storms pushing off to the east as well so let’s look to see what’s next on the docket here and we’ll open it on up and show you a well the weather system jumped away ahead here the and I think I don’t want to go back one more yeah though all the rain still ongoing off to the north flood warnings across the area I think the Morganza not being open because all the flooding up here is not all getting into the rivers it’s also percolating into the ground so that’s my opinion on that Vermillion though here showing that starting out at 6 feet raising to 60 a 14.6 rather now is falling in that 14.6 puts it in the top 10 list not comparable to that August 2016 event where we had the same rainfall rates but over a period of two to three days in a row where we had those same kind of rainfall rate so again 2016 event much much worse event but we don’t want to minimize the flooding that a lot of us have seen during the course of the last 24 hours water was high in my neighborhood as well I had to wait before I could leave I had to wait for the water to go down so here come more storms through tomorrow morning but they will be moving along at a good clip they’ll continue to push to the east and then maybe a secondary around in the late afternoon early evening but fortunately again the storm is moving along and then drier air moving in for the weekend but also can’t rule out the risk of severe weather rainfall totals at seeing some purple here so the possibility up to two one two too many of us see less than that and as for the severe weather threat there is a marginal risk for a few storms that could produce damaging winds tomorrow and maybe some hail we might not see a weather watch area but we might see a couple of severe thunderstorm warning so we’ll be watching for that quiet at least past midnight tonight but scattered storms returning very late and by daybreak at 60% 76 the low then for tomorrow we’ll go 90 for the high rain chances higher in the morning and then they’ll peak again later in the day temperatures still top out near 90 tomorrow so still hot and humid stays that way into the weekend with diminishing rain chances but notice as we go into the middle part of next week a little bit of a cool-down with highs the upper 80s and lows getting down into the 60s for a few nights enjoy it because it won’t last long the following weekend will be back in the mid-90s once again I know some stations have those you know mobile storm chasers we need to get you like a power Doppler Pierrot yes I think that floated a word floaties for my arm girl it’d be perfect in the

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