Weather Pattern Change Looking Likely – U.S Weather Forecast

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hello everybody welcome back to another
us weather forecast for your Wednesday November 13th 2019 here a couple of days
before my birthday my birthday is actually on Friday so I’m quite excited
to make a video on my birthday before I head out to my grandparents house for
the weekend before we do get started with this weather forecast so be sure to
check out my discord the link is in the description below this video I do want
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now let’s move on with our first slide here on the European model 2 2 meter
temperature anomaly forecast here from the weather Bell weather site here
alright so what I want to kind of talk about here is what the colors actually
mean alright so there’s a bar below this video you’ll see anywhere from Pink’s to
purples to blues all the way up to on the other end of the scale oranges reds
and dark reds in great colors here indicate temperatures departures from
normal so if you see temperatures in the orange
here temperature anomalies so to speak you have temperatures around 2 to 5
degrees or more above average with temperatures in the darker red colors at
about 10 to 15 degrees above average and then so on
now blue here on your screen indicates temperatures are 5 to 10 degrees below
average the green 15 10 to 15 degrees below
average in the EAL blue colors here over Indiana
indicate temperatures 15 to about 25 degrees below average and then so on and
so forth so this is a temperature departure for Thursday and you can get
an idea that the cold arctic air is still hanging and being lazy across much
of the United States here especially from Texas points northeast here across
New York and the New Hampshire area with those temperature anomalies 15 to 20
degrees below average and it has been nothing but warm dry weather here for
much of the West with temperature anomalies 10 to as much as 25 degrees
above average so definitely summer not summer-like but early fall-like weather
really being felt across California and much of the West just no rain we really
need the rain terribly bad here for my birthday November 15th here we’re
looking at temperatures above average that’s what I get on my birthday nature
I don’t think so we should see temperatures below average or near
average for this time of year actually it’s not too bad I can take about two to
three degrees above average in my neck of the woods which is not bad but other
folks that have their birthdays the same day as mine you’re gonna have some warm
weather if you are in Utah if you are in Arizona also New Mexico and the Colorado
Wyoming Montana you’re gonna have temperatures ranging between 5 to 15
degrees above average with below average temperatures here on the range of 10 to
20 below average so still early winter like weather in fact probably more like
mid to late winter Mel let’s take a look at Saturday here again really warm
weather for the West nothing much to talk about this go-around for the
Northern Plains you’re gonna be warming up significantly actually for tomorrow
you’re near average and then by Friday you’re still
near average in above average by Saturday then by Sunday it’s more of
above average for you for two the New York for Pennsylvania still well below
average temperatures also for the southeast for the Upper Midwest with
some snow still on the ground definitely gonna feel like winter for your area
still and like always red and gray colors for the west and for the
Northwest we’re seeing temperatures as warm as about 30 degrees above average
that is just ridiculously warm for November at least for mid-november here
and it stays out way into Monday and Tuesday before cooler weather finally
arrives but it’s gonna be a while for the four-corners and for the central
Rockies well above average temperatures for your kind of mid November timeframe
near average for the East this continues all the way through the 20th and the
21st of November with these temperatures really kind of going back and forth I
think Iowa according to the European here over the next seven days I think
are gonna be a having a warm up here for Iowa for Wisconsin so that’s good news
for the people that don’t like the cold weather you’re gonna get a warm up and
then probably more colder weather beyond that for the California though near
average temperatures in fact we’re gonna be talking about a very strong offshore
wind event probably by the middle of next week we’ll really have to watch all
the models closely on that because it could mean more high fire danger so
let’s look at our nighttime lows and our daytime highs on the European actual air
temperature this is not departures this is what you’re feeling out the door if
you’re stepping out the door for your Thursday morning for your morning
commute it is going to be pretty chilly across the Minnesota Wisconsin with
overnight temperatures dropping down into the upper teens low 20s we’re
talking upper 20s mid 20s across the Upper Midwest the great
Lakes also for Cincinnati Ohio Kentucky also for West Virginia Virginia the
Virginia Beach really on the chilly side Mobile Alabama really gonna be chilly
out there you’re gonna start off with temperatures into we’re looking at some
low 40s out there gonna be chilly but it’s gonna be warming up further on
through the into the weekend which is nice to see for a little bit I would say
not too much warmer but a it’s better than the 20s and the teens in some areas
there in Alabama for California not so pleasant we’re gonna see temp not so
pleasant as in it’s gonna be warm it’s not gonna average out very well here for
Thursday morning for Florida you’re gonna see some temperatures there in the
low 70s during the morning wow that’s warm and then maybe squeezing
some 80s out there for your Thursday afternoon for Phoenix Arizona for much
of the US you’re gonna be warming up certainly not as cold as it’s been in
the Texas and Oklahoma area if had temperatures there in the upper 20s low
30s during the day what about the temperatures they’re into the low 50s ah
that’s got to feel better in the Great Lakes Friday morning certainly cool but
not as cool as it’s been again a little maybe another burst of cold air gonna
kind of swing past the area but nothing like what we’ve been seen and then
temperatures will improve after that as we go into the weekend certainly
actually let’s go ahead and take a look at my birthday here we have temperatures
in our area in the low 60s maybe some upper 50s along the coast to the upper
60s inland which is not bad by Saturday and Sunday it is going to be warming up
we could look at temperatures in the 80s in some isolated locations well above
average again for this time of year we could be looking at 90-degree
temperatures across Southern California so that’s unheard of you don’t hear
about that very often it’s gonna be definitely warm you’re gonna want to be
in the tank tops for Pete’s sakes all right and then by next week it’s gonna
be a lot cooler by Tuesday and then by Wednesday and
Thursday and so on it’s gonna be a lot better so we have to get through at
least all the way up until maybe Monday and Tuesday for well above
record-breaking temperatures still across the West and then things do come
down alright at least in my in the European model territory that’s what
we’re looking at so now we’re gonna focus on the temperature probability
forecast brought to you by the Climate Prediction Center the next six to ten
days here so what does this mean okay so we were looking at temperature anomalies
but this is kind of a little different this is chances of above or below
average so say you have tempters 80% below average well there’s a greater
chance for below average temperatures than normal or above average you kind of
see what I’m getting there right so for California from November 19th through
the 23rd we have 50% chance for temperatures above average which means
there are higher chances for temperatures being above average then at
below average so we’re guaranteeing for warmer temperatures than below all right
a lot less unlikely force well below average temperatures or certainly the
chances across the southeast and the Northeast are certainly not 80 to 90%
below average we’re looking at 33 to 40% so that means the chances you’re gonna
look at temperatures near normal it’s gonna be below average but less chances
of that happening we’re not seeing a guarantee for it to happen otherwise
we’d be again a hundred percent or so alright but it’s near normally
guarantees that I don’t see temperatures above average right now in the short
term for the next 10 days across the Northern Plains however in the high
plains it’s gonna be a different story you’re looking at temperatures 33 to 40
percent of that occurring across the plains and then
northwest near normal for this time of year so we’re now gonna look at the 8 to
14 day outlook here from this Climate Prediction Center for your Thanksgiving
so I think Thanksgiving is the last Thursday so it’s not too far away and so
California looks to have less chance a little lower than 50% so that’s good
news right we’re having about 35 to 40% above average so which means it’s more
in the slight range territory we’re not seeing 80 or 90 percent above average
then look at this for southeastern California welcoming back a little bit
of fall-like weather a 33% therefore below average again it’s just a slight
hair or not talking I’m massive again chance there also for portions of the
for Lake Erie also for portions of maybe Lake Superior and Lake you actually
leave superiors to the north but you get the idea
temperatures there 33 percent chance of it occurring below average now the three
to four week outlook and doesn’t look too promising for California 60% chances
of that occurring there all the way through December 6 so we’re technically
gonna see temperatures here probably above average but some of the other
models speculate may be below average for California and for the west and the
Northwest which would be nice to see but I’ll tell you what below average
probably continuing for the next three to four weeks across the Great Lakes and
the Northeast here all right so we’re now gonna look at now the precipitation
probability forecast this is made as of the 13th of November two days before my
birthday people and we’re looking at below average again for northern and
central California 60% chance which means it is going to happen we’re likely
to see no rain through November 23rd versus down here across Phoenix Arizona
has a 60% chance for above average precipitation in the form of snow or
rain and the below average here for the southeast and near normal for
Pennsylvania and much of or all of New York and then to the north here we’re
looking at a slight chance for above average precipitation now the 8 to 14
day outlook does still show below average for California we have not been
even in the green at all at all for I think we’re looking at four weeks
already just below average rainfall that ridiculously resilient ridge of high
pressure is really stubborn it’s not moving anytime soon and we’re looking at
below average even so the models are trying to bring in something I’m not
seeing I’m just not counting on it right now or
I I just don’t see it happening right now through probably Thanksgiving all
right though however the four corners do look at above-average precipitation
which is nice to see all right week to the week three to four
experimental outlook does show that again equal chances there for the last
above-average though at least for the Northwest and then maybe below average
there for southern Wisconsin and probably stretching into Illinois and
the Missouri areas so now we’re gonna look quickly at the geopotential height
anomaly just like tempters we want to look at the thicknesses the atmosphere
thicknesses alright in meters and so how I see it as I’m kind of thinking of if I
hopefully you all understand is the 500 millibars so this is an a’ mid to upper
parts of the atmosphere and so you’re looking at 500 millibar pressure
readings here all right it’s kind of like air pressure but at 500 millibars
in the atmosphere and so when you have 558 or 540 well you have to go about 40
meters above the 500 height line to find that air pressure
value all right I know it’s a little confusing but it’s important it tells us
where ridges are we’re troughs are and where these ridges are above average or
below average troughs and you kind of get the idea to almost like temperatures
so on average below average height lines across the Great Lakes stretching into
the stretching into the deep south ridging this persistence and high
pressure continues it looks to kind of get knocked out a little bit by a trough
off the coast you can kind of see it here a little bit of a trough bringing
our Heights on to near normal all right very strong low pressure readings across
Hudson Bay where height lines could be at least 300 and about 30 point 6 meters
below average what doesn’t which doesn’t sound like much but then as we go into
the weekend this ridge tries to build on top of California here looking at pretty
high values above average here almost 5 90 meters in the atmosphere and here’s
another look at that on the geopotential height again again what we’re looking at
here is we’re looking for troughs we’re looking for ridges alright I know for
you guys that don’t know much about meteorology this probably doesn’t mean a
lot to you but it’s very important because again the higher these the
geopotential height is usually you got air sinking alright you got high
pressure values alright and so it’s basically temperature and pressure at
500 millibars but take away the temperature and that’s kind of what you
have alright so for Friday morning you can kind of see more of a zonal flow and
given by the jet stream here we’re not seeing a huge trough kind of setting up
like this or kind of more like this more of the trough enos looks to kind of be
confined a little to the north here with this short a wave ridge that’s going to
be slowly moving eastward with a shortwave trough
kind of developing over here across Georgia that’s gonna be kind of being
kicked out as this trough kind of grabs this little this low low our upper-level
low-pressure system and you can kind of see it right there
another ridge again 588 meters which is pretty high for California but this
trough here looks to kind of sneak under and will help to bring down another
trough kind of down across California and we’ll kind of Park it out here
you’ll see that here towards the end of the model run actually you didn’t see it
there but you kind of get the idea there’s a low-pressure system that’s
gonna kind of intensify this trough and so there’s gonna be a lot of storminess
down here in fact also for kind of portions of Southern California and
probably the desert Southwest here alright and then more trophy nests
more of this zonal flow on average which is nice to see so means that less
extremes in the atmosphere and that’s what we really care about a lot right at
least the east can get a little bit of a break from the temperatures probably not
until the latter part of the weekend it’s gonna take some time but be sure to
make sure you still protect any plants or pets out there I know it’s not as
cold but still it temperatures in the teens and in the 20s that’s cold
right you know it’s below average and you know what to do right alright before
I do in the video though I really want you all to check out my discord the link
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alright everybody I will see you back here either not probably not tomorrow
more likely on Friday before I go to my grandparents house I’ll see you back
then all right have a good night peace

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