Winter Storm Developing across the Northeast by the Weekend Likely

Winter Storm Developing across the Northeast by the Weekend Likely

Articles, Blog , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 12 Comments


hello everybody welcome back to your
second upload of the day Wednesday Here I am David Schlotthauer in today’s video will
future the threat for some heavy snow for the Northeast and for the Great
Lakes with the threat also existing for freezing rain and sleet across the
southeast included for portions of the deep south here it’s very unusual for
November to pan out this way with snow and wintry precipitation extending so
far south before we do get started though with the video be sure to check
out my discord the link is in the description below there is a limited
amount of slots on my discord per video so be sure to get in there before time
runs out also be sure to check out my facebook and also my patreon page also
if you just want to support the YouTube channel feel free to subscribe share
like and ring the bell notification icon if you do subscribe that way you get
latest notifications such as winter storms severe weather hurricanes and
this brutal Arctic outbreak that you’re about to face into early next week so
we’re now gonna look at the GFS we looked at this in my last video we will
do it again in this video presented by tropical tidbits calm at Levi’s Cowan
very awesome guy that does tropical updates on his youtube channel the link
to that channel is in the description I will add the link in the previous video
after I get done with this if you guys were curious okay so for Sunday morning
here we got some snow up here across northern Wisconsin and also actually the
tippy tip of northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan here but we got this
call invisible cold front at this given point here as far as precipitation goes
there’s not enough moisture at this time for rain or snowfall to exist but as
soon as this cold air collides with moisture coming out of the
Gulf of Mexico here remember the air down here still in the upper 70s to mid
80s and you got temperatures up here in the 20s coming out of the north so as
soon as the contrast in temperature becomes great enough I’m assuming there
will be some significant snowfall along this front and some very heavy rain as
starting off as rain but the heaviest snow looks to spread apart through here
and also across the Great Lakes you’ll see that here in the next few slides so
far let’s move forward here so this is for Sunday afternoon you could already
see that surface low pressure system developing across northwestern Texas
then for overnight Monday into actually overnight Sunday into Monday ahead of
myself you can see there for Oklahoma some moderate to heavy snow along to go
with freezing rain and sleet and let’s just take a sneak peek now at the skew-t
UT soundings that I don’t normally show in my videos I will show it in this
video so how freezing rain actually works with
the system that’s developing is you got warm air aloft above freezing
essentially the skew-t soundings here indicate that by the dotted line okay
oops let me get the get it to work here let’s see if it will work alright so
there is the dotted line here all right on either side okay and the red line is
above the freezing mark okay kind of added in the low parts of the atmosphere
at this time it turns into rain from snow and then it will refreeze as soon
as it hits the surface as freezing rain so that’s what’s gonna be shaping up
with this system then with sleet to the north this is how a skew-t sounding
would look like so you got temperatures barely warming up just about freezing or
just slightly below freezing but the precipitation stays at the freezing
point all the way until it reaches the surface so the time that it spins
falling through the atmosphere with temperature
below-freezing indicate that this UT shows that there will be a threat for
sleet so ice pellets and in other words so that will cover for southern Missouri
for northeastern Oklahoma snow just snow because of the scooty sounding here
showing temperatures will be well below freezing for the extent of its downward
motion through the atmosphere of the precipitation then you got rain down
here of course means above freezing this is going to propagate and amplify
throughout the day Monday all right the rain is going to intensify across Texas
so there could be a threat for flash flooding there could be a threat for
some very strong winds as this front pulls through also there’s gonna be a
threat for light to moderate snow extending across the central Arkansas
for northwestern Tennessee also stretching into southern Indiana also
for Ohio and the Cincinnati area can get light to moderate snow with this system
and then the snow looks to amplify a little bit but look at this system me
and Ethan Jay that’s on my discord on owner of my discord we’re best friends
here he lives in Mobile and we’ve been talking about this system capability of
producing enormous flooding and some very heavy rain and the threat for
wintry precipitation across a Pennsylvania area now it is very tricky
to predict systems like this because it all depends on how much moisture exists
within the atmosphere so the latest model of the GFS has lesser amounts of
moisture up here throughout the atmosphere equalizing to you lesser
threat for snow but I still think that the GFS is be playing a little bogus
with us so I think we’re gonna see a little bit of snow than what you’re
seeing here on the forecast radar here and the GFS and the European model have
been doing a very similar outcome with kind of nudging back and forth on who’s
gonna get the most snow and who’s not but you get the
idea this is going to be a all-in-one system cold air sleet freezing rain rain
wind everything you think of and then the lake effect snow is way up here and
actually let me go and scroll up here there we go
now you can see a little bit better alright so with the cold air aloft there
free of threat for a lot of lake effect snow will be the big threat with this
system all right so that’s for Monday afternoon evening into Tuesday morning
look at Pennsylvania look at New Jersey and New York
watch out Nicholas barreto you can get some freezing rain out there for your
Tuesday morning for your morning commute also for Pennsylvania sir excuse New
York getting moderate to heavy snow there could be winter storm warnings
with this and this could be a named winter storm wouldn’t surprise me
depending on how much snow falls I think we’re gonna see about a foot depending
on the moisture content I’m sure there will be a foot because there’s a lot of
moisture as we speak on the models here lots of heavy rain boy mobile down here
where one of my best friends lives really gonna get hit maybe with some
severe weather some very heavy rainfall and some flooding and of course the very
strong powerful winds expected to come out of the north with this so it’s gonna
be a cold rain indeed with this system actually the threat for severe weather
is gonna be quite tane too given the low temperatures during the day into the
upper 30s to low 40s but still in all some very heavy rain and flooding
underscores that severe weather threat and then again a possibility a brief
opportunity for freezing rain and sleet across the Alabama and for portions of
Southern Mississippi again it all depends on how much cold
air and moisture is available at the given time but either way it’s gonna be
cold so it’s gonna feel colder that it’s raining out there then for the
Pennsylvania for the New York you’re gonna get a lot of snow out there
definitely and again this it’s still a little early for snow so this is gonna
be new to some people and then a second impulse of moisture kind of moves
across the North Carolina area bringing a threat for some snow some gusty winds
and some frozen precipitation that will continue through Wednesday so be careful
out there on the roadways everybody and then maybe another system here could
fall apart though since the overall pattern looks to do a switcheroo on us
so kind of a flip-flop pattern so a threat of snow look might be decreasing
with time later down the road all right so now let’s take a look at our threat
for the amount of snowfall for the Northeast and then we’re gonna look at
the Great Lakes in just a bit all right so for the New York area some areas
could get about a foot of snow more likely about 9 to 12 inches of snow
remember now you’re looking at 13 inches in saying oh this is gonna happen all
within one system no there’s gonna be a little bit of snow
prior to this winter storm so therefore there could be a couple of inches on the
ground already before this comes through so you’re looking at about a foot of
snow within this narrow corridor with higher amounts probably near a two foot
mark there for Northwestern or northeastern I should say of Maine so
Maine is gonna take the lead with the most snow here expected and again we’re
looking at possible some strong winds and winter storm conditions what are a
winter winter storm warnings are likely to be issued and then maybe a little bit
of snow down here across New York it’s not snow time yet right it’s only
November but it’s gonna feel like January before you know it all right so
we’re now gonna look at the New York not the New York I am kind of all over the
place today all right focus David so we’re now looking at the Great Lakes
here and the threat for lake effect snow because again the cold air aloft don’t
forget about that okay that’s in my last video that cold air Loft is going to be
moving over rather warm lake waters like Lake Michigan Lake Superior Lake Erie
all right these lakes and Lake Ontario also that’s
what I meant to mention are all gonna have lake water temperatures in the
lower 50s so that might not seem cold at all and that might not seem warm but it
is okay relative to the atmosphere temperature which will have temperatures
in the single digits and if not actually at four to five thousand feet
temperatures could be right around negative thirty negative twenty degrees
so that’s a big contrast with Lake waters and you’re gonna get a lot of
moisture associated with this and when you get moisture condensing you get
clouds and then you get precipitation when it condenses enough so that’s what
we’re seeing here as in terms of lake effect snow kevin bob you could see
probably six to thirty inches of snow again a big wide range here because
again it’s very tricky exactly who’s gonna get the most lake effect snow so
that’s why i’m giving a big range across lake michigan possibly in that 30 inches
in isolated locations Lake Ontario Lake Superior could have snow amounts between
six to thirty five inches again just depending on how much snow on the
overall dynamics pan out alright but you give and take lots of snow expected in
the short term and you need to be careful it’s November folks it’s not
January or February okay you got to slow it down on the roadways when you
encounter snow conditions on the roadways you know you can slip and slide
right you don’t want to go ice skating with your car on the road it’s no fun
all right I’ve been through it a couple of times when I was traveling up to Lake
Tahoe during the winter months we actually kind of slid and slipped and
slide up there it’s not it’s not fun okay especially when you’re kind of
cruising down the road at like 20 or 30 miles an hour so be sure to make sure
you carry a flashlight food and water in your vehicle especially this coming
weekend into early next week since there’s gonna be a lot of snow that’s
expected to do bell up alright and make sure you get
yourself some extra time if you’re headed off to work so now the chances or
the amount of sleet that is expected here so again this is an area known for
sleet type conditions actually kind of up and across this area because you get
several valleys like Knoxville Tennessee you get the Appalachian Valley chain
that you know you have there and so cold air likes to get trapped okay in these
valleys and then you get warm air aloft it doesn’t really mix out very well with
winds and so you have the threat here for sleet type conditions so some slick
conditions on the roadways you can see about a half an inch to an inch or so of
that sleet that could develop here on the European model the European model
showing the amount of freezing rain expected here we’re looking at about a
tenth to a quarter of an inch but I did earlier check with the GFS model
probably about a half an inch of ice in these areas so you might really want to
be careful out there on the roadways it could be very dangerous power outages
possible keep in mind ice has weight to it and it accumulates on power lines and
it just knocks down trees knocks out power so make sure you are prepared for
some significant weather later in the weekend into early next week and also
for Pennsylvania you could possibly have about a tenth to a quarter of an inch of
ice again there is to be changes to come on the models but we have a pretty good
idea with such a contrast in temperature there’s gonna be some sort of impacts
with either rain wind snow or ice on in your location alright everybody I think
that’s gonna do with this video I sure hope you enjoyed it a lot if you did be
sure to check out my discord server limited slots available be sure to also
check out my patreon my Instagram also my facebook twitter and twitch pages
really awesome everybody thank you for the support
also if you don’t want to support me there you can support me here on YouTube
by clicking the red subscribe button giving this like share and ring the bell
notification icon as it really helps out a lot
yep post notifications is always awesome as I do upload quite frequently
alright that’s gonna do it see you in the next one peace

12 thoughts on “Winter Storm Developing across the Northeast by the Weekend Likely

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *