Winter Storm Isaiah Morning Update – Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, Severe Weather

Winter Storm Isaiah Morning Update – Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, Severe Weather

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good morning everybody it’s David Schlotthauer here happy Thursday to you we are tracking the possibility for a historic
winter storm across the Great Lakes and the Northeast with a very large severe
weather threat across the deep south we are talking a lot of catastrophic
impacts with this upcoming winter storm and severe weather threat from Friday
into Sunday before we do get started with the video though be sure to check
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we’re going to be looking at the latest storm preparation checklist and then we
are going to be looking at the European model and timing this all out so one
thing for sure this storm will be a very dangerous storm system alright I’m just
making that clear with everyone so I want you all to have a flashlight
prepared just in case if the power goes out because I do guarantee power will be
out between maybe six hours all the way up to a few days in certain locations so
make sure you do have a flashlight also and make sure you do any grocery
shopping today today is your day to get prepared do any grocery shopping to buy
any non expired food that would be highly recommended and have non expired
food water prepared but um have okay okay I meant to say bye pet cat food
today alright how an emergency kit prepared alright so make sure you
prepared if there is an emergency that does occur also keep important documents
safe like your social security paperwork your marriage paperwork everything like
that all right and bring your vehicles inside as a lot of ice and other hazards
will impact your vehicle so bring that inside prepare your storm shelter today
if you have any relatives be sure to keep them safe and make sure they’re
safe and make sure you do have a tool kit so make sure you do follow the storm
preparation checklist that I gave you here all right so Friday into Sunday
okay this is the storm impact this is going to be a major storm if not a
level-five we’ll see if the models stick around into tonight and if it they do we
might upgrade this to a level 5 all right so for right now this is a major
storm we’re talking damaging 70 mile an hour winds we’re talking large hail in
the severe weather zone some tornadoes okay and some of those could be really
large and dangerous all right absolutely ahead of the cold front very intense
rainfall flooding likely one to two inches of freezing rain likely expected
and anything you see in red is a big weather hazard with this storm system
including the rain that I didn’t highlight for some reason one to two
feet of snow one to three inches of sleet and blizzard conditions are
certainly expected with this winter storm
so let’s time this out on the European model on our high-resolution forecast so
Green is rain and blues snow of course kind of the reddish maroon kind of
beige-ish colors our freezing rain and purple colors are a sleet or a mix and
in other words so you can see here just a couple of showers throughout may be
developing into the afternoon and evening hours today persisting into
tomorrow morning but this is not going to be the main storm of course there’s
gonna be some honor like moderate rainfall but it’s not
going to be very very heavy until we get into tomorrow tomorrow and Saturday are
the big days with the storm all right this is kind of more post frontal
showers as this low exits to the Northeast and then we got another low
that’s going to be developing here at 1005 millibars
it’s the changes coming throughout Friday you will need to be aware of so
Friday morning when you wake up just kind of lightly scattered showers on
some Nimbo showers we call them which means low-level showers nothing too
extreme as we go throughout Friday showers and thunderstorms begin to pop
up now looks like the models are doing a pretty good job especially the European
that the severe thunderstorms do look to ignite a little earlier in the day which
could mean a really big problem that means these storms can be more severe
than what we first were thinking so you can see there across Oklahoma City to
the east showers and thunderstorms will likely develop here all right and then
as we go into Friday afternoon look at the squall line developing all right a
really really impressive line of very intense showers and thunderstorms again
extremely severe thunderstorms we’re looking at a moderate risk for severe
weather especially for Eastern Texas Louisiana and Arkansas and maybe for
portions of Mississippi throughout the next couple of days this is a really big
severe weather threat and a very high threat for winter storm conditions
here’s a trough here at the surface obviously you can see an in longing
gated area of low pressure the low pressure hasn’t closed in but
you can see up here across the Iowa and also for northern Missouri and portions
there of Kansas City you’re getting in on a lot of freezing rain and snow but
this is going to get a lot worse okay before it gets better Saturday could be
by far the worst day out of the whole entire weekend with this winter storm
all right so for Saturday morning we go high-pressure to the north right we got
in 1036 millibars down here we got 998 millibars so look at the interaction
perfectly directly south of one another you can see right here perfectly lined
up and that’s gonna be the recipe for freezing rain and you’ll see that here
continuation of really strong severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards all
right and then as we go in to say about the Saturday late morning early
afternoon look at the freezing rain here across northern Illinois so Chicago can
get really hit hard here on the European model very intense snowfall for
Milwaukee for Brookfield Wisconsin for central portion of Michigan very intense
freezing rain and maybe some thunder for ice we call it our as what Kevin Bob
would say thunder ice okay but a very impressive system will be unfolding here
as we go into Saturday afternoon look at those colors on the screen very very
intense precipitation all right you can see the cold front right here kind of
lacking its way let me use a darker blue color so there’s a cold front right
there like we just got done I’m mentioning gonna be causing the issues
here is the warm front right in here that’s gonna be causing the freezing
rain and then a an occluded front which will be placed somewhere right in here
so a very classic winter storm capable of all every single weather hazard you
can think of so I really want everyone to stay inside stay home this weekend do
not do any outdoor activities it’s gonna be too dangerous out there
993 millibars this continues all the way to Saturday night into Sunday morning
look at that for Wisconsin in Michigan really getting hit hard and look at this
southern most Canada or at least the southeastern portion there lots of
freezing rain and very heavy snow indeed that
continues to impact that area all the way through Sunday early afternoon so
how much snowfall can you expect with this winter storm right now the latest
complete European model I’m not using intermediate runs so just for your
information we are looking at two feet of snow across much of Wisconsin look at
this tons and tons of snow expected all the way through out central southeastern
Wisconsin northern portion of Illinois like near Chicago all right northern
Michigan could see up to about a foot of snow down here across the Midwest such
as Oklahoma the Kansas City the northern Missouri area you could see between 6 to
12 and a half to maybe 15 inches of snow that’s a lot of snow all right that will
be causing a lot of problems maybe winter storm warnings will be issued
there for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma that would be our really big
concern blizzard conditions whiteout conditions certainly a likely factor
especially for Wisconsin could see one of the worst winter storms in a very
very long time in fact I’ve not seen a winter storm this big for about 3 or 4
years so make sure you are prepared there in
southern Wisconsin how much sleet can you expect with this winter storm
certainly a lot we’re looking at about a quarter of an inch to maybe about an
inch or so of freezing precipitation in the form of sleet here all across
southern Iowa portions of the Missouri area northern Illinois southern
Wisconsin central portion there of the Michigan area a lot of problems on the
roadways like I just got done saying there’s going to be a lot of power
outages so how much freezing rain can you expect with this winter storm right
now all of the models I checked every single weather model before we I did I
made this video and most of the models are showing about an inch to maybe two
inches of freezing rain in the ice accumulation spectrum across Central
Michigan there is going to be catastrophic power outages catastrophic
tree damage and maybe some roof collapses all right on some houses that
would be a very bad situation you can see here lots and lots of freezing rain
not like I have never seen two inches of freezing rain on a weather model in like
forever more than about a few years at least for Central Missouri and northern
portions between about a quarter to half an inch of freezing rain with some areas
maybe a little over a half an inch so definitely enough to cause significant
power disruptions and power outages there anywhere you get more than a
quarter maybe more like a little over a tenth of an inch of ice could cause some
power disruptions in some tree branches to come down so another threat with this
will be the excessive amounts of very intense heavy rainfall that will lead to
significant flooding there is already a flood watch issued for much of Indiana
much of Illinois much of the Missouri area alright so this is where the
heaviest rain will be concentrated if it doesn’t snow if you’re south of the
mixed end area of snow you’re gonna just see a lot of rain and boy it’s gonna be
coming down a lot across much of this region we are looking at two to four
inches of rainfall with some areas up to five to maybe even getting close to six
inches so that’s a lot of rainfall and indeed if this storm we’re gonna stall
out this would be a massive massive plot problem so watch out this weekend
everybody for flooded roadways small creeks streams and rivers definitely to
be on the rise really quickly and I just want everyone to turn around do not
drown in a No words all right it’s a very famous
saying turn around to avoid drowning your vehicle all right it’s not safe
so all from the rain and the wintry side of the storm we’re gonna be talking
about the severe weather side so you can see the trough here positioned by Friday
afternoon it is over New Mexico western Texas the Colorado area all right up and
down the high plains here ahead of it okay this is where we are paying really
close attention all right all throughout this portion of the atmosphere
throughout the afternoon hours all right actually let’s do this a little bit
better so all throughout this portion of the atmosphere there is a likely for
severe weather conditions the reason for that is you got a couple of things
we got strong divergence aloft again strong divergence aloft you can see the
height lines here spreading apart from each other and that means what that’s
gonna create is a very very unstable area in space in the atmosphere so think
about this if we did not have the Coriolis effect the air would be moving
directly straight from the center okay but since we have a Coriolis effect the
air moves out at an angle aloft so this is at about say 28 to 30 thousand feet
high now what that creates is that lowers the surface pressure below it
because you’re basically rushing in air from the surface to fill that gap aloft
so anytime you get strong divergence you usually get a really strong surface low
that develops or in this case severe weather and a tons of lifting mechanism
such as lifting ascent so definitely a huge problem with that
all right so strong trough strong divergence equals a lot of very intense
rainfall severe weather and moisture so we’re now looking at the low
more like the low-level side of vorticity here so this is a measure of
if there’s any rotation if there’s any cyclonic relative vorticity in the air
for tornadoes for rotating thunderstorms to take on so it does appear there is
definitely a lot of vorticity absolutely a lot of shear lots of turbulence out
there there’s gonna be a lot of problems all right
when these thunderstorms really erupt okay in fact they’re already erupting on
this model you can see here with very strong signature of a cyclonic relative
vorticity and that’s going to be a problem so the purple the pink colors
that you see on your screen here indicate much stronger regions of
rotation while areas in the green and blue and gray colors indicate very
little areas of circulation or vorticity cyclonic Lee speaking
all right so that goes all the way through the afternoon hours and look at
this look at this very strong mcs okay very strong vorticity within this strong
mcs or multi convective system that’s going to or multi mezzo or multi
convective system is or mezzo convective system I meant to say here sorry about
the term but either way you put it this is going to be a very strong squall line
capable of tornadoes and definitely damaging winds even on the back side
here we got some vorticity signature which I wouldn’t be surprised
alright so lots of that going on now we’re gonna look at the wind profile
within the atmosphere okay so definitely you can see here aloft at the 500
millibar level so this is say at around we’re seen about 28 to 30 thousand feet
high and you can see here the winds overall are coming out of the southwest
you can definitely see that taking shape here based on the geopotential height
contours along to go with the wind here but this is where it all starts all
right notice the thunderstorms right in here
okay causing that divergence because again the air is rising rapidly creating
an area of low environmental pressure okay with winds here of about 60 to 80
knots all right aloft now let’s take a look at the lower portion at about 6,000
feet above the surface look at how strong these winds are going to be so
this is 0-3 Z all right on the European same time but only lower in the
atmosphere and you can see here here is the cold front that you can see that I’m
gonna draw up here okay so there’s a cold front here is kind of the
stationary warm front that’s going to be positioned there you can see the low
pressure system overall placing itself over Oklahoma and that’s what most of
the models indicate but look what’s going on ahead of this winds are gonna
be really strong aloft between about 60 to as much as 70 knots okay that is
really really powerful that is definitely speech here
directional shear that is going to lead to the threat for discreet cell mode
development along to go with a very very dangerous damaging squall line as this
all unfolds and you can see here the very strong wind environment ahead of
the cold front leading up to it really powerful winds so now going down to the
surface here nearly at 900 millibars which would be about a couple of a
thousand feet high you can see here winds really strong aloft here at about
50 to near 60 knots which would be almost 70 miles an hour actually 64
knots would be about 70 miles an hour so really strong winds aloft and that is
why the damaging squall line will be capable of six about 70 to near 90 miles
an hour of dam that’s really really strong indeed okay
so very strong southerly winds ahead of this all right so let’s sum it all up
really quickly so let’s use our color coat here so I’m using red for
upper-level winds so you can see the winds here coming out of the Southwest
alright we’re gonna be looking at the low level winds here from the South more
out of the south here right and then we are gonna be looking at the surface
winds and you can definitely tell there is definitely some directional shear
definitely a lot of it and speed shear at the same time so that’s gonna create
a lot of problems sustained winds at the surface 15 to 25 miles an hour enough to
really bring the threat for strong tornadoes lots of damaging winds and
some hail and very intense rainfall across the deep south like Gonzales
Louisiana Baton Rouge much of eastern Texas and also for much of the Arkansas
area now here’s the tricky part all right we do know the Cape breaks along
the squall line obviously that’s why the squall line will be developing but ahead
of it is still in question mark because there is still convective inhibition
note by the hashtag– kind of this gray scale kind of kind of a hashtag out
color here indicating convective inhibition that continues though all the
way throughout Friday if it breaks it means discrete cell mode development all
right which would mean individual cells developing and rotating turning into a
tornado threat so right now it looks like the convective inhibition may not
break at all but if it does break we could be talking about a lot of discrete
cell mode development and large tornadoes and that continues all the way
throughout Saturday so we’re now gonna look at the lifted index all right how
unstable is the atmosphere so definitely these numbers here are showing you
between minus 1 to minus 4 all across Louisiana the Texas Arkansas
area so a very unstable area of the atmosphere here capable of
um severe weather so definitely a watch on that all right so the significant
tornado threat here we’re gonna take a look at this very quickly all right
we’re looking at a four to A six so again we’re looking at a pretty high
threat for tornadoes you can see the scale here four to about seven now
here’s a quick look at the super self composite so definitely a very unstable
atmosphere there they really look quick at the lapse rates here we are looking
at some steep mid-level lapse rates so that will transpire – some hail and all
that sort of interesting stuff all right that’s gonna do what this video I sure
hope you enjoyed it if you did please be sure to check out my weather authority
discord server please verify your account via Alto alt identifiers and
before you join the server and create a discord account if you want to join
subscribe give this a like and share this with your friends and family and
ring the bell notification icon to stay up to date with more weather content I
will have another update this afternoon I look forward to seeing you then have a
good one everyone peace

40 thoughts on “Winter Storm Isaiah Morning Update – Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, Severe Weather

  • CandyS Post author

    Thanks David!

  • Karen Oberly Post author

    Good morning David. The wind is howling like crazy in Missouri. Gray skies. Take care everyone.

  • KittenLover333 Post author

    good morning david 🙂

  • Shana Badr Post author


  • Dakota Calloway Post author

    Thanks David are u gonna talk about the northeast and the ice potential

  • Billy Sand Post author

    Where is this?

  • Billy Sand Post author

    Thank David!

  • Chad Crawford Post author

    My social security paperwork is in heaven. My hope isnt here in this world. The level 5 severe weather will be in northern Oklahoma as I have sought God to curse all my missout proverbs. This will all by supernatural power its getting exciting for me by things unseen. This storm has really backed up since last night. It will not skip my area because i asked an angel to stand in the gaps and curse my chronic missout proverbs. My hope is in Jesus Christ and i know He heard me its time to put duds aside and agree forever to love serve and worship Him. I plan when my life is over to just go to Heaven against all the wiles of the devil trying to make me always get skipped. The heaviest will suddenly be in northern Oklahoma by supernatural power. Wisconsin will suddenly drop in play. The former proverbs God has different plans for me im looking for lots of action in Oklahoma not the broken record of lakes northeast im getting a turn here i will get huge winds too.

  • Chad Crawford Post author

    Winds in Oklahoma are Howling gusting 35-45mph low gray skies clouds racing across the sky very warm with a temperature of 58 degrees in my area.

  • Ka S Post author

    Thanks David. What’s the weather in Alaska this week?? Anything new, interesting or unusual happening there???

  • Adrian’s Weather Forecast Post author

    Great job David!! I’m 6 away from 2,000 so you’ll get that shout out very soon! Isaiah is looking a lot worse than we thought!! Im definitely posting on this when I get home!!

  • Dr. Fell Post author

    This thing is looking wicked! Thanks for the super awesome update and maps!

  • Jen Grose Post author

    Hi, yaaaa the wind is really blowing in northern Michigan too. One of our local channels is FINALLY letting us know what could be coming in northern Michigan. They're guessing 10"-12" here. But we understand that that could change as the models do. See I'm learning 🤗 Thanks for staying on top of this….

  • Josh Crane Post author

    How much snow do you think Milwaukee Wisconsin will get

  • Blossom Utonium Post author

    The freezing rain SHIFT SOUTH.

  • Ashley Calloway Post author

    Go David ! That’s what I am talking about!

  • Yippers Post author

    Do you think that Chicago will get more snow than predicted? (right now predictions are saying 1-3)

  • Debra Edge Post author

    They are saying its going to be very bad this weekend

  • mw izzie Post author

    Colorado is looking ok

  • Allan Krause Post author

    Shit that's me I'm right in the middle of it

  • Allan Krause Post author

    Freezing rain is happening here now

  • AndysLawnCare andOutdoorAdventures Post author

    Winter Storm Watch is up for my area about 20 minutes NW of O'hare international. Bad freezing rain threat here. What do you think will end up happening for me? How much of what precip can I expect?

  • Kevinbob235 Post author

    Yup my winter storm watch says possible historic ice storm

  • King Yung Ace Post author

    I live in kennedale tx, am I safe?

  • Kade_ Ydstie Post author

    I hope the models trend to more of s cellular storm mode. I know they won't budge much, but I hope several supercells are able to develop out ahead of the front

  • Big Thunder Post author

    We had the mildest January i can remember in Massachusetts

  • Alex The mta and r179,r211 fan,weather fan Post author

    The ultimate everything storm.

  • Callie Phillips Post author

    Thank you for keeping me upadated! I really love your channel channel and channel and you inspire me. I'm in the moderate area for severe weather and I'm going to sleep inside of my cover room for the next 2 or 3 nights

  • sandra PILAR gil Post author

    Thankyou David for the weather.

  • Travion Anderson Post author

    Will northern Illinois get severe weather in January 19th 12z?

  • LoS t E d Craze dog Post author

    Nice video David and I have a feeling there will be some tornadoes and it finally rained in the valley this morning in Fresno it was raining until 11:15 AM 🌧🌧☁️🌧☔️ and after there were a lot of cumulus clouds that were expanding quickly but unfortunately did not turn into a cumulonimbus but it’s ok tho

  • Braeden The Weatherboy Post author

    Thanks David I’m in this very intense storm and what website is that vorticity map on? I really like it 😁

  • Sir Sir 7 Post author

    I hate it

  • Wizdom videos Post author

    I live in Wisconsin near the Illinois Wisconsin state line. Looks like a bad storm is coming my way wow!! Thank you for the update🙏🏼

  • MATCHEDPLAYER Post author

    Sounds like a lazy saturday here in michigan for me. Better get that snow blower running lol

  • G Bro Post author

    Thank you David.

  • Z A Post author

    Im in Toronto. Direct path of this. We already have so much snow

  • Gracie LPS Post author

    Will My Area get Storms Or Even a Tornado? I Live In Northeast Texas Near Dallas

  • Tina M Post author

    Wish we would get snow in SC 🙁😭

  • Myles Post author

    We had freezing rain in my area last month which is highly unusual for Duluth, MN to get anything other than snow. Also, Lake Superior is at record low levels of ice as are all the Lakes. I do things every winter on Superior that requires a frozen lake yet even with below zero this am and twenty below real feel, the lake is still record low. I assume since this late in the season, zero chance it will freeze close to normal levels anytime this winter.

    Just as some complaint of no snow in other places, warming is hitting Duluth too in a bad way. It won't surprise me if it gets so warm in ten years that we don't get tornadoes in January around Duluth.

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